A strong earthquake swarm began shortly after 6:00 UTC today in the northwestern part of the Bárðarbunga caldera. Approximately 130 earthquakes have been recorded since the swarm began, with the largest reaching magnitude 5.1 at 8:05 UTC.

Additionally, 17 other earthquakes with a magnitude of 3 or higher were detected, including at least two measuring magnitude 4 or above. These estimates may change as analysis of the events is ongoing.

Updated 14. January at 15:05 UTC

Land uplift in the Svartsengi area continues at a similar rate to previous weeks. By the end of January or beginning of February, the likelihood of an eruption starts to increase, as model calculations indicate that approximately 12 million cubic meters of magma will have accumulated beneath Svartsengi by that time. The models are based on estimated magma inflow rates, but minor changes in inflow could impact the estimated timing of the next eruption.

In recent days, a gradual increase in seismic tremor has been recorded on the Grímsfjall seismometer, suggesting that a glacial outburst flood has begun from Grímsvötn. These floods emerge from the base of Skeiðarárjökull glacier, flowing into the Gígjukvísl river. Typically, these glacial outburst floods increase gradually, and it can take a few days for the first signs of floodwater to be detected at the hydrological station in Gígjukvísl river and an additional few days before peak discharge is reached. With precipitation in southeast Iceland in the past days, and more expected in the coming days, the identification of the initial signs of the flood In Gígjukvísl could prove to be challenging.