Ground Uplift and Magma Accumulation Continue Beneath Svartsengi
Updated 14. January at 15:05Seismic activity remains relatively low
Latest data suggests that the likelihood of magma intrusion and potentially an eruption will increase end of January
Updated hazard assessment valid until January 28, 2025, unless conditions change
Land uplift in the Svartsengi area continues at a similar rate to previous
weeks. By the end of January or beginning of February, the likelihood of an
eruption starts to increase, as model calculations indicate that approximately
12 million cubic meters of magma will have accumulated beneath Svartsengi by
that time. The models are based on estimated magma inflow rates, but minor
changes in inflow could impact the estimated timing of the next eruption.
Seismic activity around Svartsengi remains low, similar to recent weeks.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office hazard assessment has been updated with no changes made. It remains valid, barring any changes, until January 28.
- Latest data suggests that the likelihood of magma intrusion and potentially an eruption will increase as of January.
- Geodetic model results estimate magma inflow rates similar to the rate leading up to the last eruption.
- Updated hazard assessment valid until January 14, 2025, unless conditions change.
Deformation data up to December 30, 2024, indicates that magma accumulation beneath Svartsengi continues.
The likelihood of a new magma intrusion and potentially an eruption is expected to increase when the volume of magma beneath Svartsengi matches the amount that left the magma region during the magma intrusion and eruption on November 20. Geodetic model results estimate this volume to be between 12 and 15 million cubic meters.
According to the latest deformation data, the magma inflow rate is currently estimated at just over 3 m³/s, similar to the rate observed before the last eruption. If magma accumulation continues at the current rate, the magma volume beneath Svartsengi is projected to reach 12 million m³ by late January and approximately 13.5 million m³ by the first week of February. Therefore, the likelihood of magma intrusion and potentially an eruption along the Sundhnúkur crater row may increase as of late January.
These estimates are based on calculated magma inflow rates over time, and small changes in these rates can affect projections for the timing of a potential eruption.
Lava Field Remains Hazardous to Hikers
The Icelandic Meteorological Office's hazard assessment has been updated and remains valid, barring any changes, until January 14, 2025.
The main change concerns Zone 6, where the overall hazard level has been revised from significant (orange) to moderate (yellow). The overall hazard in Zone 6 is now considered lower due to a reduced lava flow hazard. However, while the danger due to the lava flow is currently deemed lower, the existing lava field remains hot and dangerous to cross.
Earthquake Swarms Near Eldey Common in Recent Years
Seismic activity has been minimal along the Sundhnúkur crater row since the last eruption ended on December 8, 2024.
However, some seismic activity has been recorded in other nearby areas. Approximately 200 earthquakes, including two over magnitude 3, were detected during a swarm from December 29–31, 2024, near Eldey on the Reykjanes Ridge. Earthquake swarms near Eldey have been frequent in recent years, with nearly 60 earthquakes over magnitude 3 recorded there in the past four years.
While occasional earthquakes are still being detected, the swarm has mostly subsided. Regular small earthquakes continue to occur in the western part of Fagradalsfjall, where over 60 minor earthquakes have been recorded in the past month, most at depths of 6–8 km.
